Up! Up! Up!

  For the silicone industry, the biggest pressure in 2022 will come from the weakening of real estate. Because building silicone adhesive is an area highly relied on by monomer enterprises in the past years, under the continuous effect of aging population, declining urbanization rate and adhering to the policy of "no speculation in real estate", the growth rate of real estate sales and development investment in 2022 is expected to decline significantly, which will affect the continuous decline in demand for silicone adhesive, which requires the strategic improvement of relevant enterprises to make up for.

  According to the industry, upstream plans in their respective fields have become more and more clear, and everyone must be working hard from 2022, so the final and real finals of this industry will be around 2023-2024. Perhaps more fundamental changes in the pattern of the silicone industry will be seen more clearly at that time.

  A few days ago, the three monomer enterprises actively expanded the international market, docking with demand customers in India, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, Africa and other markets. At present, the first silicone raw material export ton shipment business is smooth. Monitoring data shows that the silicone market rose by a narrow margin before the festival. The market price of raw material DMC has risen, which is good for the cost of the industrial chain. The supply of DMC market is tight. The downstream market just needs to enter, and the mentality of the industry has improved. Today, the manufacturer's quotation is mainly rising. Large factories just need to take contract orders as the main demand, and sporadic retail investors get low prices.

 On the news side, it was heard that three new monomer units were put into production, which was bad for the spot market, and the competition among silicone raw material manufacturers became increasingly fierce. It is expected that in January, the inventory will be replenished repeatedly, with limited room for shocks. It is suggested to pay attention to the price changes in DMC market and the changes in the information of downstream factories and warehouses.

  The demand for silicone related products has exploded. The Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022. Among them, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, which is the expected policy implementation. The policy has already defined that the subsidy will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% in 2020-2022, so this decline will not disturb the industry's expectations, The sales volume of new energy vehicles is estimated to be 3.4 million this year (160% year-on-year), and may be about 4.5 million next year. The penetration rate should be increased from 15% to more than 20%. The growth rate is lower than this year, but it should be more than 30%.

  In addition, a number of new car making forces released sales data in December, among which Xiaopeng, Ideals and other new car making forces still performed well in December. Tesla delivered 936000 vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 87% year on year, which exceeded the original market estimate of 900000 vehicles. Affected by this, Hong Kong shares Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideals Automobile rose 5.85% and 3.5% respectively against the trend. It is also expected that the growth of the delivery of new car making forces in 2022 is expected to continue the high-speed growth momentum in 2021, Achieve more than doubled growth.